PM's Bennelong dilemma

• Malcolm Mackerras - 22 March 2005 - Australian Financial Review
• Malcolm Mackerras is visiting fellow in political science in the Schoiol of Humanities and Social Sciences at ADFA
• © 2005 Copyright John Faifax Holdings Limited.

If John Howard wants to go,he should. But he must not create a byelectionin his seat, argues Malcolm Mackerras.

In January 1966, Robert Menzies retired as prime minister in favour of Harold Holt, his deputy leader, who was also treasurer and the member for Higgins in Victoria.

Menzies chose a full and immediate retirement. Consequently he also resigned as the member for Kooyong, creating a byelection in April 1966 won by Andrew Peacock.

There are many observers (of whom I am one) who think John Howard would serve the interests of the Liberal Party, and of himself, if he retired next year.

Peter Costello, deputy leader, treasurer and the member for Higgins, would take over as seamlessly as did Holt when Menzies retired.

Whether Howard cares a fig for the interests of the Liberal Party is unknown. He may reject my advice.

However, if he is interested in the party, he will, like Menzies, retire as PM but do one thing differently from Menzies. He would not create a byelection for Bennelong, because Labor would win the byelection and the new Labor member would become entrenched.

He would, instead, resign the office of prime minister next year and retire from Bennelong when the term ends in 2007.

The status of Bennelong as a marginal seat has not been widely noticed. However, it is a marginal seat, needing only a 4.4 per cent swing to fall to Labor.

Of the 12 seats in metropolitan Sydney held by the Liberal Party, Bennelong is the second most marginal, next only to Greenway.

If we rank all 150 federal seats in order of Labor's share of the two-party preferred vote on the 2004 figures, Bennelong comes in at number 75.

You cannot get much more marginal than that except you can.

Later this year we will learn that NSW is to lose a federal seat because over the past four years its population growth has been slower than that of Australia as a whole. There will have to be a redistribution of NSW federal seats next year in order to implement the cut from 50 to 49 seats. Bennelong will need to increase the number of its electors from the present 86,000 to about 91,000.

Each of the past two federal redistributions has weakened the Liberal vote in Bennelong by moving it westwards. There is every reason to expect the same to happen again next year.

If Howard chooses to lead the Liberals in the 2007 campaign, he would do so in knowledge of the following possibilities.

First, he may win government narrowly while he wins Bennelong narrowly. Second, his government may win while he loses Bennelong. Third, he may lose both his government and his seat.

If the first event occurs, he would be in a dreadful situation. He could not hand over to Costello in the next term and resign his seat because a byelection loss might deprive the government of its majority.

If the second or third events occurred, he would be totally humiliated.

To avert this situation, he could ask the electoral commissioners to gerrymander Bennelong. I do not believe they would do that.

It is true my recommendation is that he make the opposite choice to that of Menzies and Hawke. Both resigned their seats and created byelections. Hawke's seat was lost unexpectedly.

But Howard's seat is so much more marginal. While his vanity would be offended by sitting on the back bench for 12 months, he could defend such a choice on grounds of party loyalty.

I confidently predict that, for the next few elections, the party which wins Bennelong will be also the party winning the general election nationally. Bennelong will be the new Eden-Monaro.

Readers who doubt my assertions about the marginality of Bennelong are invited to do a thorough analysis of its voting patterns at recent state elections.

Furthermore, Bennelong is described in the latest Parliamentary Handbook (page 154) under "state electorates" as "Bennelong includes the NSW Legislative Assembly electorate of Ryde, and parts of Epping and Lane Cove". Ryde is a safe Labor seat needing a swing to fall to the Liberal Party of 15.6 per cent. Epping and Lane Cove are marginal Liberal seats.

Ryde is held by John Watkins, Transport Minister in the Carr government and a likely future premier. However, he may prefer to be the next member for Bennelong. Watkins would have no trouble defeating Howard at the 2007 general election. He would have even less trouble defeating "any old" Liberal candidate at any 2006 byelection.